Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong anticipated recovery in key properties, particularly in Hawaii, where the group pace at Hilton Waikoloa is expected to increase by approximately 77% in 2025 after a decline of 44% this year. This indicates significant upside potential as international travel, especially from Japan, rebounds. , ,
- Strategic investments in high-quality, "bull's eye" real estate through renovations and upgrades are projected to generate outsized returns, notably in markets like Hawaii and Orlando. Oahu's RevPAR growth has historically outpaced the U.S. average by nearly 300 basis points over the last 20 years, demonstrating confidence in long-term performance and the ability to unlock embedded value in the portfolio. , , ,
- Positive outlook for key markets such as Orlando and San Francisco due to significant market investments and events. Orlando is expecting an 8% increase in room nights in 2025 despite fewer events, positioning $PK to benefit from increased demand through their enhanced properties and ability to host multiple groups simultaneously. ,
- Labor strikes are causing operational disruptions and uncertainty, particularly at the Hilton Hawaiian Village in Hawaii. Management cannot provide updated guidance due to ongoing negotiations between operators and labor unions, which could negatively impact future performance.
- RevPAR in Hawaii properties declined 8% in Q3, worse than the expected 2%-3% decline, due to weather-related issues and decreased Japanese travel. The recovery of international travel remains uncertain, which may continue to pressure revenues in this key market.
- October RevPAR is trending flat to down 1%, even after adjusting for hurricane disruptions, due to continued union activity and strikes. This lack of growth indicates potential headwinds in sustaining revenue performance and could impact overall financial results.
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Labor Strikes Impact
Q: How is the Hilton Hawaiian Village affected by the ongoing strike?
A: The Hilton Hawaiian Village has remained open during the strike and continues to provide services to guests. Due to ongoing negotiations between our operators and labor unions, we're not in a position to update guidance or provide specific details at this time. Once agreements are negotiated and ratified, we'll have a better understanding of the impact and will provide an update. -
Non-Core Asset Dispositions
Q: Will you accelerate plans to dispose of non-core hotels?
A: We are laser-focused on reshaping our portfolio. Since the spin-off, we've sold or disposed of 44 assets for nearly $3 billion. We still have about 14 non-core assets and will continue to work aggressively to recycle that capital. We believe investing back into our portfolio creates the most value, as seen with Casa Marina, where we're expecting EBITDA this year to be about $30 million, roughly 35% over the pre-pandemic high watermark. -
2025 Group Booking Pace
Q: What's the outlook for group bookings next year?
A: We had strong group performance this year, up about 9%. Looking ahead, we're pacing up 5% to 7% for next year, with several tentatives that may improve this further. Hilton Waikoloa, which was down 44% this year, is expected to see group pace up almost 77% next year. Denver, Bonnet Creek, and San Francisco are also showing strong increases. For 2026, group pace is already up about 10%. -
Weather Risk Management
Q: How are you addressing weather-related risks?
A: We've taken proactive measures like setting up tiger dams, relocating building systems above flood levels, and investing in sand nourishment. These efforts are reflected in our reduced insurance costs. We factor weather risks into our underwriting and are proactive in managing these challenges, which distinguishes us from peers. -
Corporate Demand Trends
Q: How are large corporate accounts shaping up for 2025?
A: Negotiations are ongoing, but trends are positive. The corporate negotiated subsegment has outperformed this year, up about 6%. Contracts are moving towards dynamic pricing tied to occupancy rates. This bodes well for strong performance in this group continuing into 2025. -
Expense Outlook for 2025
Q: What expense growth do you expect next year?
A: We're beginning the budgetary process and will provide guidance later. While concerned about top-line and expenses, we feel good about our portfolio's performance. Excluding strike and weather impacts, we're seeing close to a 4% RevPAR increase. We're focused on selling non-core assets, reinvesting in the portfolio, reducing leverage, and returning capital to shareholders. -
Capital Investment Plans
Q: Will labor disputes affect investment in key markets?
A: We remain bullish on markets like Hawaii and are moving forward with renovations at the Rainbow Tower in Hilton Hawaiian Village and the Palace Tower at Hilton Waikoloa. Issues like the labor dispute are considered transitory. We're committed to investing in high-quality real estate that can generate outsized returns. -
Election Year Impact
Q: Are you seeing any impact from the upcoming elections on bookings?
A: Yes, we see a slowdown. Pace is down around 13% during election week and 11% the following week. This is consistent with previous election years like 2020 and 2016. However, December is expected to benefit from some of these shifts. -
Hawaii and Japanese Travel Recovery
Q: What's your outlook on Hawaii and Japanese traveler return?
A: We remain bullish on Hawaii long-term. Japanese visitation is expected to be about 720,000 this year, up 22% over last year but still about 54% below 2019. We expect to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2026 or 2027. Oahu's RevPAR growth over the last 20 years has outpaced the U.S. by nearly 300 basis points. -
Asset Sale Timing and Market
Q: What are your expectations for asset sale timing?
A: We expect the transaction market to accelerate in 2025 as buyer-seller gaps narrow, especially with anticipated rate cuts reducing the cost of debt. There's significant private capital waiting to be deployed. Since the spin-off, we've sold 44 assets for nearly $3 billion and will continue to recycle capital thoughtfully to invest in our core markets.
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